Saskatoon, SK and Vancouver, BC - January 06, 2010 - Confidence amongst real estate professionals surveyed as part of Point2 Technologies’ (“Point2″) monthly Real Estate Confidence Index (RECI) poll dropped marginally in December but maintained relative optimism, with the national Index holding in positive territory at 5.91 on the 1-10 scale, Point2 announced today.
The national RECI registered a relatively modest 1.99 percent retreat versus the all time high printed last month when the Index jumped to 6.03, a 7.87 percent improvement versus November 2009 results.
Mixed sentiments expressed by survey respondents in December highlighted the role of the government’s newly expanded tax credit program in driving business in lower price bracket market categories, with a less optimistic outlook prevailing in association with the end of the program, at the end of April 2010.
Tough lending practices were cited as a key opportunity for sustained market recovery, and low appraisals and high foreclosure property inventories were blamed for continued pressure on property prices in several markets around the U.S.
Extending a trend observed since the RECI’s launch in June 2009, real estate brokers and agents operating in U.S. cities with major military presence continued to express relatively more positive sentiment regarding the business environment.
All three components of the national RECI regressed marginally. The Current Sentiment gave up 2.90 percent, registering 5.01 on the 1 - 10 scale, on a seasonally adjusted basis. The 3 - 6 month forward looking Short Term optimism/pessimism variable slipped by 0.67 percent after a 10.98 percent leap in November. The Long Term component, which measures broker and agent optimism/pessimism for the next 12 - 18 month period came in at 6.80, dropping 2.58 percent after a 7.22 percent improvement in the prior period.
Long Term optimism remained relatively healthy however, with the majority (73.80 percent) of brokers and agents giving the 12 - 18 month optimism/pessimism Index component a rating of 6 or higher. 60 percent of the respondent base rated the same variable between 7 and 10, and 11 percent expressed extreme forward looking confidence, giving the 12 - 18 month window a perfect 10.
The RECI capitalizes on the insight and knowledge of real estate brokers and agents across every U.S. State to bring a unique, forward-looking ground level view of the health and future outlook of the real estate market from the people most attuned to local conditions. Unlike many other industry surveys, the RECI does not rely on past performance statistics or mathematical projections to predict the future health of the real estate market.
To obtain the complete RECI Summary Report including respondent commentaries presented by State, view RECI results by State or, to download the RECI dynamically-updated widget, visit www.RealEstateConfidenceIndex.com.
The December RECI is derived from 1213 survey responses, by licensed brokers and agents across the United States.
Survey Instrument and Methodology
The Real Estate Confidence Index (RECI) tracks the real estate market opinions of thousands of licensed real estate professionals, brokers and agents, across the United States, accounting for seasonality, on a scale of one to ten (1 being “bad” and 10 being “good”). The RECI also rates respondent sentiment for market conditions 3 - 6 months and 6 - 12 months into the future on a ten-point scale (1 being “pessimistic” and 10 being “optimistic”). The median across all three time periods represents the Index measure for the month.
The RECI is open to the Point2 Agent membership and to tens of thousands of additional licensed real estate professionals across the nation at the beginning of each month. Respondents complete a simple, four question survey through third party survey solution providers, Survey Monkey. The data is tabulated electronically, median averages surfaced for quantitative questions, and qualitative feedback and respondent commentaries are captured and presented in Point2’s monthly RECI Summary Report.